SignalPlus Macro Analysis: ETH ETF Inflows Rebound, Potentially Fueling Further Altcoin Rally

By: blockbeats|2024/12/02 21:15:01

Original Title: "SignalPlus Macro Analysis Special Edition: Final Stretch"

Original Source: SignalPlus

SignalPlus Macro Analysis: ETH ETF Inflows Rebound, Potentially Fueling Further Altcoin Rally

Last week was the Thanksgiving holiday in the United States, with light market trading volume maintaining an overall consolidation pattern. The U.S. stock market is set to make history once again, with 2024 poised to be one of the best-performing years in history, with 5 out of the past 6 years seeing double-digit returns.

Market breadth continues to be supportive, with the 52-week stock high-low quantity difference still appearing healthy. The upward trend remains intact, the volatility index (VIX) is trending downwards, and following Trump's announcement that Scott Bessent will be the Treasury Secretary, the bond market has calmed down, with the 10-year yield dropping nearly 35 basis points from its October high.

In addition to his so-called "pro-cryptocurrency" stance, Bessent is also a fiscal hawk and a supporter of an independent Federal Reserve. His proposed 3-3-3 plan (reduce the fiscal deficit to 3% of GDP, raise real GDP growth to 3%, and increase daily energy production by 3 million barrels) has brought relief to the U.S. fixed-income market. Since his nomination, the yield curve premium has remained stable at the current level.

While there are still doubts about his core views, journalists researching his early speeches have found that due to central bank accumulation, he has a "long-term bullish" view on gold. Whether this will have a spillover effect on Bitcoin, especially in the recent discussions about strategic reserve portfolios, remains to be seen. At the very least, the next four years are sure to be very interesting.

Traders are gearing up for a busy week as they approach the final non-farm payroll data release of the year. Despite concerns about rising inflation just beginning to emerge, the market still anticipates a roughly 65% chance of a rate cut. However, considering the strong economic conditions, the forward rate cut expectations for 2025-2027 have been significantly reduced. Regarding the employment data, the market expects an overall employment data rebound of around +160,000, while the unemployment rate is expected to hover around 4.3%. Given the recent weakness in PMI surveys and high-frequency employment data, the final data outcome also has the potential to come in below expectations. Nevertheless, unless there is an extremely surprising result, risk sentiment may still remain positive.

The optimistic sentiment in the cryptocurrency market continues to prevail. However, this week's focus is on Ripple. Against the backdrop of expectations that the government will withdraw its long-standing lawsuit, XRP has surged a stunning 73%. This significant upward trend has helped XRP surpass USDT to become the third-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization. In anticipation of this development, whale addresses have been actively accumulating XRP over the past month (and are now selling).

The current uptrend is mainly concentrated in major coins (excluding ETH), with BTC leading the pack, while altcoins are still struggling to return to their January highs. Although recent successes in Layer 2 and blockchain protocol transformations (such as Hyperliquid) continue to dominate the cryptocurrency market's attention, we are seeing some improvement in Ethereum through inflows into ETH ETFs. Last Friday saw inflows exceeding $330 million. Will we see more rebounds of secondary mainstream coins before the year's end?

Nevertheless, the fundamental indicators of cryptocurrency remain optimistic as the market capitalization of stablecoins has finally exceeded the previous high during the Terra-Luna period. Stablecoins are usually the first entry point for most fiat users into the cryptocurrency market, and a higher market capitalization (with a fixed price, hence entirely quantity-driven) indicates greater mainstream participation.

With investors pouring in more new funds, will we see faster growth in the new year? Let's hope so!

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Mixin has launched USTD-margined perpetual contracts, bringing derivative trading into the chat scene.

The privacy-focused crypto wallet Mixin announced today the launch of its U-based perpetual contract (a derivative priced in USDT). Unlike traditional exchanges, Mixin has taken a new approach by "liberating" derivative trading from isolated matching engines and embedding it into the instant messaging environment.

Users can directly open positions within the app with leverage of up to 200x, while sharing positions, discussing strategies, and copy trading within private communities. Trading, social interaction, and asset management are integrated into the same interface.

Simplified Trading Experience: No KYC Required, Opening a Position in Five Steps

Based on its non-custodial architecture, Mixin has eliminated friction from the traditional onboarding process, allowing users to participate in perpetual contract trading without identity verification.

The trading process has been streamlined into five steps:

· Choose the trading asset

· Select long or short

· Input position size and leverage

· Confirm order details

· Confirm and open the position

The interface provides real-time visualization of price, position, and profit and loss (PnL), allowing users to complete trades without switching between multiple modules.

Social-Native Trading: Strategy and Execution Completed in the Same Context

Mixin has directly integrated social features into the derivative trading environment. Users can create private trading communities and interact around real-time positions:

· End-to-end encrypted private groups supporting up to 1024 members

· End-to-end encrypted voice communication

· One-click position sharing

· One-click trade copying

On the execution side, Mixin aggregates liquidity from multiple sources and accesses decentralized protocol and external market liquidity through a unified trading interface.

By combining social interaction with trade execution, Mixin enables users to collaborate, share, and execute trading strategies instantly within the same environment.

Referral Mechanism: Non-institutional users can receive up to 60% fee split

Mixin has also introduced a referral incentive system based on trading behavior:

· Users can join with an invite code

· Up to 60% of trading fees as referral rewards

· Incentive mechanism designed for long-term, sustainable earnings

This model aims to drive user-driven network expansion and organic growth.

Self-Custody Architecture and Built-in Privacy Mechanism

Mixin's derivative transactions are built on top of its existing self-custody wallet infrastructure, with core features including:

· Separation of transaction account and asset storage

· User full control over assets

· Platform does not custody user funds

· Built-in privacy mechanisms to reduce data exposure

The system aims to strike a balance between transaction efficiency, asset security, and privacy protection.

A New Path for On-Chain Derivatives

Against the background of perpetual contracts becoming a mainstream trading tool, Mixin is exploring a different development direction by lowering barriers, enhancing social and privacy attributes.

The platform does not only view transactions as execution actions but positions them as a networked activity: transactions have social attributes, strategies can be shared, and relationships between individuals also become part of the financial system.

Regulatory Background

Mixin's design is based on a user-initiated, user-controlled model. The platform neither custodies assets nor executes transactions on behalf of users.

This model aligns with a statement issued by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on April 13, 2026, titled "Staff Statement on Whether Partial User Interface Used in Preparing Cryptocurrency Securities Transactions May Require Broker-Dealer Registration."

The statement indicates that, under the premise where transactions are entirely initiated and controlled by users, non-custodial service providers that offer neutral interfaces may not need to register as broker-dealers or exchanges.

About Mixin

Mixin is a decentralized, self-custodial privacy wallet designed to provide secure and efficient digital asset management services.

Its core capabilities include:

· Aggregation: integrating multi-chain assets and routing between different transaction paths to simplify user operations

· High liquidity access: connecting to various liquidity sources, including decentralized protocols and external markets

· Decentralization: achieving full user control over assets without relying on custodial intermediaries

· Privacy protection: safeguarding assets and data through MPC, CryptoNote, and end-to-end encrypted communication

Mixin has been in operation for over 8 years, supporting over 40 blockchains and more than 10,000 assets, with a global user base exceeding 10 million and an on-chain self-custodied asset scale of over $1 billion.

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