Next week's macro outlook: Focus on US-Iran negotiations and changes in the Federal Reserve personnel, with the Middle East situation repeatedly disturbing the market
According to Jinshi reports, global markets significantly rebounded over the past week driven by expectations of easing tensions in the Middle East, but core uncertainties remain unresolved. Iran once announced the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, leading to a rapid decline in oil prices, a broad strengthening of risk assets, U.S. stocks reaching new highs, a weakening dollar, and gold approaching the $4900 mark. However, Iran subsequently signaled that it "is still under military control," combined with the U.S. maintaining sanctions against Iran, which has heightened market concerns about the volatility of the situation.
On the macro level, the biggest variable next week will still be the progress of U.S.-Iran negotiations. U.S. President Trump stated that negotiations may advance over the weekend and warned that if an agreement is not reached by next Wednesday, the ceasefire could end, and there is a risk of renewed conflict; meanwhile, Iran's attitude towards negotiations remains cautious, especially with significant differences on key issues such as uranium enrichment. The market has currently shifted from "pricing in conflict escalation" to "pricing in a path to easing," but any sudden changes could still trigger sharp asset fluctuations.
In terms of interest rate expectations, the decline in energy prices has alleviated inflationary pressures, and the market's expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve this year have risen to about 60%. At the same time, Federal Reserve Chair nominee Kevin Warsh will attend a Senate hearing next week, and his policy stance (especially whether it leans dovish) will become an important variable affecting gold and risk assets.
On Tuesday at 20:30, U.S. March retail sales month-on-month;
On Thursday at 20:30, U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending April 18;
On Thursday at 21:45, U.S. April S&P Global Manufacturing/Services PMI preliminary;
On Friday at 22:00, U.S. April University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index final value, one-year inflation expectations final value;
In the short term, the market's main focus will revolve around three major variables: progress in U.S.-Iran negotiations, oil price trends, and signals from the Federal Reserve.
You may also like

How to balance risk and return in DeFi yields?

Tom Lee's Ethereum Thesis: Why the Man Who Called the Last Cycle Is Doubling Down on Bitmine
Tom Lee is emerging as one of Ethereum’s most influential supporters. From Fundstrat to Bitmine, his Ethereum thesis combines staking yield, treasury accumulation, and long-term network value. Here is why “Tom Lee Ethereum” has become one of crypto’s most watched narratives.

Naval personally takes the stage: The historic collision between ordinary people and venture capital

a16z Crypto: 9 Charts to Understand the Evolution Trends of Stablecoins

Refutation of Yang Haipo's "The End of Cryptocurrency"

Can a hairdryer earn $34,000? Interpreting the reflexivity paradox of prediction markets

6MV Founder: In 2026, the "landmark turning point" for crypto investment has arrived

Abraxas Capital Mints $2.89 Billion USDT: Liquidity Boost or Just More Stablecoin Arbitrage?
Abraxas Capital just received $2.89 billion in freshly minted USDT from Tether. Is this a bullish liquidity injection for crypto markets, or is it business as usual for a stablecoin arbitrage giant? We analyze the data and the likely impact on Bitcoin, altcoins, and DeFi.

A VC from the Crypto world said AI is too crazy, and they are very conservative

The Evolutionary History of Contract Algorithms: A Decade of Perpetual Contracts, the Curtain Has Yet to Fall

Kicked out by PayPal, Musk aims to make a comeback in the cryptocurrency market

Solana ETF News: What Is a Solana ETF and Why Is Goldman Sachs Betting $108 Million on SOL?
Solana ETF news today shows Goldman Sachs disclosed a $108M position while total SOL ETF inflows reached $1.45B. Analysts now expect up to $6B in institutional demand as Solana trades 71% below its all-time high.

Bitcoin ETF News Today: $2.1B Inflows Signal Strong Institutional Demand for BTC
Bitcoin ETFs news recorded $2.1B inflows over 8 consecutive days, marking one of the strongest recent accumulation streaks. Here’s what the latest Bitcoin ETF news means for BTC price and whether the $80K breakout level is next.

Michael Saylor: Winter is Over – Is He Right? 5 Key Data Points (2026)
Michael Saylor tweeted yesterday “Winter‘s Over.” It is short. It is bold. And it has the crypto world talking.
But is he right? Or is this just another CEO pumping his bags?
Let us look at the data. Let us be neutral. Let us see if the ice has really melted.

WEEX Bubbles App Now Live Visualizes the Crypto Market at a Glance
WEEX Bubbles is a standalone app designed to help users quickly understand complex crypto market movements through an intuitive bubble visualization.

Polygon co-founder Sandeep: Writing after the chain bridge chain explosion

Major Upgrade on Web: 10+ Advanced Chart Styles for Deeper Market Insights
To deliver more powerful and professional analysis tools, WEEX has rolled out a major upgrade to its web trading charts—now supporting up to 14 advanced chart styles.

Morning Report | Aethir secures a $260 million enterprise contract with Axe Compute; New Fire Technology acquires Avenir Group's trading team; Polymarket's trading volume surpassed by Kalshi
How to balance risk and return in DeFi yields?
Tom Lee's Ethereum Thesis: Why the Man Who Called the Last Cycle Is Doubling Down on Bitmine
Tom Lee is emerging as one of Ethereum’s most influential supporters. From Fundstrat to Bitmine, his Ethereum thesis combines staking yield, treasury accumulation, and long-term network value. Here is why “Tom Lee Ethereum” has become one of crypto’s most watched narratives.






